Manisa F.K.
vs
Muğlaspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Manisa F.K.
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor
| Probability | Manisa F.K. | Draw | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.9% | 27.9% | 22.2% |
| Market | 40.0% | 28.0% | 32.1% |
| Final | 42.5% | 27.9% | 29.6% |
| Edge | +10.0% | -0.1% | -9.9% |
Why Manisa F.K.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.96.
- The market prices Manisa F.K. below the model: +10.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor match preview
Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor are set to clash in the 1. Lig on October 19, 2026. According to our model, Manisa F.K. has a 42% probability of winning, while both a draw and a Muğlaspor victory are at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.37 for Manisa F.K. and 1.10 for Muğlaspor.
In terms of recent form, Manisa F.K. has struggled with four losses and two draws in their last six matches, whereas Muğlaspor has shown improvement, recording four draws followed by two wins. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 45%, and there is a 51% chance that both teams will score in the match. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor attack and defence ratings
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor — match page
- Iğdır FK vs Boluspor
- Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor
- Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor — match page
- İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü — team news & stats
- Bursaspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats
- Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manisa F.K. | 42.5% | 2.36 | +10.0% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manisa F.K. | 42.5% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Muğlaspor | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% |
| No | 50.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manisa F.K. win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor stats
Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor recent form
| Manisa F.K. |
DLLDLL |
| Muğlaspor |
LDDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor season so far
Manisa F.K. record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Muğlaspor record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.5%, draw 27.6%, away 31.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.22 | 2.85 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.35 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.22 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.51 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .