Manisa F.K.
vs
Esenler Erokspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Manisa F.K.
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
| Probability | Manisa F.K. | Draw | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.4% | 27.8% | 14.8% |
| Market | 35.2% | 26.9% | 37.8% |
| Final | 40.8% | 27.2% | 32.1% |
| Edge | +22.2% | +0.9% | -23.0% |
Why Manisa F.K.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.66.
- The market prices Manisa F.K. below the model: +22.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor match preview
In the upcoming match between Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Manisa F.K. holding a 41% chance of winning, while Esenler Erokspor has a 32% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Manisa F.K., with an expected goals tally of 1.54 for Manisa and 0.66 for Esenler. Both teams have struggled recently, with Manisa F.K. recording a series of draws and losses, while Esenler Erokspor has also failed to secure a win in their last six matches.
Historically, Esenler Erokspor has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both matches against Manisa F.K. This trend may play a role in the psychological aspect of the game, as both teams seek to improve their form. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 38%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 39%, suggesting a potentially low-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor attack and defence ratings
Manisa F.K.
Esenler Erokspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page
- Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats
- Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK — team news & stats
- Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük
- Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manisa F.K. | 40.8% | 2.45 | +22.2% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manisa F.K. | 40.8% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Esenler Erokspor | 32.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.2% |
| No | 60.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manisa F.K. win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.9% |
| 2-0 | 13.1% | |
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor stats
Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor recent form
| Manisa F.K. |
LDLLDD |
| Esenler Erokspor |
LDLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor season so far
Manisa F.K. record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Esenler Erokspor record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Esenler Erokspor | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Manisa F.K. | Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig | 3-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 26.9%, away 37.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.42 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .