Kayserispor
vs
Manisa F.K.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kayserispor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
| Probability | Kayserispor | Draw | Manisa F.K. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 26.2% | 16.8% |
| Market | 65.3% | 20.6% | 14.1% |
| Final | 63.2% | 22.0% | 14.8% |
| Edge | -8.3% | +5.6% | +2.7% |
Why Kayserispor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. match preview
Kayserispor hosts Manisa F.K. in a 1. Lig matchup on October 10, 2026. Kayserispor holds a 57% probability of winning, while Manisa F.K. has a 17% chance, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Kayserispor stand at 1.69, compared to Manisa F.K.'s 0.82, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Kayserispor with three wins and a draw in their last five matches, contrasted with Manisa F.K.'s struggles, having only one draw and four losses in the same timeframe. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with a 13% probability. Additionally, there is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kayserispor and Manisa F.K. expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Kayserispor and Manisa F.K. attack and defence ratings
Kayserispor
Manisa F.K.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sivasspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats
- Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer — team news & stats
- Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor
- Boluspor v Antalyaspor — match page
- Iğdır FK v Batman Petrolspor — match page
- İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor — team news & stats
- Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
Before and after this match
Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kayserispor | 63.2% | 1.58 | -8.3% | 1.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.2% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kayserispor | 63.2% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Manisa F.K. | 14.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.8% |
| No | 53.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kayserispor win | 32.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.6% |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | |
| 2-0 | 11.6% |
Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. stats
Kayserispor and Manisa F.K. recent form
| Kayserispor |
WWWDLW |
| Manisa F.K. |
LDLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kayserispor and Manisa F.K. season so far
Kayserispor record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Manisa F.K. record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-19 | Manisa F.K. | Kayserispor | Türkiye Kupası | 3-3 |
| 2019-12-05 | Kayserispor | Manisa F.K. | Türkiye Kupası | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.3%, draw 20.6%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.38 | 4.45 | 6.38 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.33 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.30 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 4.70 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.37 | 4.45 | 6.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 4.64 | 7.03 |
| SBO | 1.37 | 3.98 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .