Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Keçiörengücü
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fatih Karagümrük
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
| Probability | Fatih Karagümrük | Draw | Keçiörengücü |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 32.6% | 38.3% |
| Market | 40.2% | 27.3% | 32.6% |
| Final | 37.4% | 28.6% | 34.0% |
| Edge | -11.0% | +5.3% | +5.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü match preview
Fatih Karagümrük faces Keçiörengücü in a tightly contested match, with probabilities indicating a slight edge for Fatih Karagümrük at 37%, while Keçiörengücü stands at 35%, and a draw is projected at 28%. The expected goals suggest a close encounter, with Fatih Karagümrük at 1.03 and Keçiörengücü slightly ahead with 1.18.
Recent form shows Fatih Karagümrük struggling with a sequence of draws and one loss, while Keçiörengücü has been more consistent, recording two wins in their last three matches. The most likely scoreline according to the model is 1-0 in favor of Fatih Karagümrük, with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü attack and defence ratings
Fatih Karagümrük
Keçiörengücü
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fatih Karagümrük | 37.4% | 2.67 | -11.0% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fatih Karagümrük | 37.4% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Keçiörengücü | 34.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fatih Karagümrük win | 11.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 70.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.7% | |
| 0-1 | 12.7% |
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü stats
Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü recent form
| Fatih Karagümrük |
LDWDLD |
| Keçiörengücü |
DWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü season so far
Fatih Karagümrük record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Keçiörengücü record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 27.2%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 3.32 | 2.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.35 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.32 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.52 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .