Bursaspor
vs
Pendikspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bursaspor
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bursaspor vs Pendikspor
| Probability | Bursaspor | Draw | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.7% | 17.8% | 9.5% |
| Market | 64.5% | 21.0% | 14.5% |
| Final | 66.6% | 20.2% | 13.2% |
| Edge | +8.2% | -3.2% | -5.0% |
Why Bursaspor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bursaspor below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor match preview
Bursaspor is set to face Pendikspor in a 1. Lig match on October 19, 2026. The probabilities from our model indicate a strong advantage for Bursaspor, with a 68% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 20% and Pendikspor at 12%. The expected goals for Bursaspor are 2.25 compared to Pendikspor's 0.86, suggesting a significant offensive edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Bursaspor has recorded a sequence of results with three wins and a draw in their last five matches, while Pendikspor's form includes two draws and three mixed results. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of Bursaspor, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bursaspor and Pendikspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Bursaspor and Pendikspor attack and defence ratings
Bursaspor
Pendikspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 66.6% | 1.50 | +8.2% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 66.6% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Pendikspor | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win | 51.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 27.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 3-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor stats
Bursaspor and Pendikspor recent form
| Bursaspor |
WLWDWW |
| Pendikspor |
LLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bursaspor and Pendikspor season so far
Bursaspor record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Pendikspor record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Bursaspor vs Pendikspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.0%, draw 20.8%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.25 | 6.01 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.50 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 4.25 | 5.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 4.84 | 6.60 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .