Mardin 1969
vs
Manisa F.K.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mardin 1969
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.20.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mardin 1969 is the favourite, not a value bet.
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K.
| Probability | Mardin 1969 | Draw | Manisa F.K. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.7% | 25.6% | 24.8% |
| Market | 52.8% | 25.4% | 21.8% |
| Final | 52.0% | 25.4% | 22.5% |
| Edge | -0.8% | +0.0% | +0.7% |
Why Mardin 1969
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (our 52.0% × 1.78 − 1).
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. match preview
Mardin 1969 faces Manisa F.K. in a 1. Lig matchup on October 26, 2026. According to our model, Mardin 1969 has a 50% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 26% and Manisa F.K. at 25%. The expected goals for Mardin 1969 are 1.77 compared to Manisa F.K.'s 1.20, indicating a potential advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Mardin 1969 has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Manisa F.K. has struggled, managing only two draws and four losses in the same timeframe. Our model suggests a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K. expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K. attack and defence ratings
Mardin 1969
Manisa F.K.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mardin 1969 | 52.0% | 1.92 | -0.8% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mardin 1969 | 52.0% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Manisa F.K. | 22.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mardin 1969 win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. stats
Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K. recent form
| Mardin 1969 |
LWWLLW |
| Manisa F.K. |
LDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K. season so far
Mardin 1969 record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Manisa F.K. record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 25.4%, away 21.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.58 | 4.07 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.58 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.64 | 4.37 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .