Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Pendikspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fatih Karagümrük
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor
| Probability | Fatih Karagümrük | Draw | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.4% | 24.5% | 14.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.4% | 24.5% | 14.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Fatih Karagümrük
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor match preview
Fatih Karagümrük faces Pendikspor in a match where the home side is favored with a 57% probability of winning, while Pendikspor has a 17% chance. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-0, occurring with a 13% probability. Expected goals are 1.68 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.82 for Pendikspor, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the hosts.
Recent form shows Fatih Karagümrük with two losses, a draw, and two wins in their last five matches, while Pendikspor has struggled with three losses, two draws, and one win. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 46%, and both teams scoring is projected at 47%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor attack and defence ratings
Fatih Karagümrük
Pendikspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fatih Karagümrük | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.8% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fatih Karagümrük | 61.4% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Pendikspor | 14.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fatih Karagümrük win | 36.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 38.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.7% |
| 2-0 | 12.5% | |
| 1-1 | 11.6% |
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor stats
Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor recent form
| Fatih Karagümrük |
WLLDWD |
| Pendikspor |
LLLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor season so far
Fatih Karagümrük record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Pendikspor record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.