Bandırmaspor
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bandırmaspor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bandırmaspor is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
| Probability | Bandırmaspor | Draw | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.8% | 32.5% | 28.8% |
| Market | 40.5% | 29.3% | 30.2% |
| Final | 40.1% | 30.1% | 29.8% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.8% | -0.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (our 40.1% × 2.31 − 1).
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük match preview
Bandırmaspor hosts Fatih Karagümrük in a 1. Lig matchup with both teams showing inconsistent recent form. Bandırmaspor's last five matches have resulted in three losses, one draw, and one win, while Fatih Karagümrük has recorded two wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. According to our model, Bandırmaspor has a 39% chance of winning, while Fatih Karagümrük stands at 29%, with a 32% probability of a draw.
The expected goals for this match indicate a slight edge for Bandırmaspor at 1.14 compared to Fatih Karagümrük's 0.96. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Bandırmaspor, with a 13% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 43% chance that both teams will score, while the probability of over 2.5 goals is set at 35%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük attack and defence ratings
Bandırmaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
- Keçiörengücü v Manisa F.K. — match page
- Vanspor FK v Sivasspor — match page
- Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor
- Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor — team news & stats
- Boluspor v Bodrum FK — match page
- Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats
- Mardin 1969 vs Batman Petrolspor — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bandırmaspor | 40.1% | 2.49 | -0.4% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bandırmaspor | 40.1% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 29.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.2% |
| No | 56.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bandırmaspor win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 61.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | |
| 1-0 | 12.7% |
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük stats
Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük recent form
| Bandırmaspor |
LLLDWL |
| Fatih Karagümrük |
LWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük season so far
Bandırmaspor record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fatih Karagümrük record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.5%, draw 29.3%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.06 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.15 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.21 | 3.06 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 2.91 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .