Antalyaspor
vs
Bursaspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bursaspor
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bursaspor is the favourite, not a value bet.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
| Probability | Antalyaspor | Draw | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.2% | 24.7% | 54.0% |
| Market | 21.2% | 24.1% | 54.6% |
| Final | 21.2% | 24.3% | 54.5% |
| Edge | -0.0% | +0.2% | -0.1% |
Why Bursaspor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 54.5% × 1.72 − 1).
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor match preview
Antalyaspor faces Bursaspor in the 1. Lig with kickoff set for November 6, 2026. Antalyaspor has a 22% probability of winning, while Bursaspor stands at 53%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.10 for Antalyaspor and 1.86 for Bursaspor. Both teams have a 57% chance of scoring, and there is also a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Antalyaspor has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Bursaspor has shown stronger performance with four wins and one loss in the same period. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Antalyaspor has achieved seven wins compared to Bursaspor's three. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Antalyaspor and Bursaspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Antalyaspor and Bursaspor attack and defence ratings
Antalyaspor
Bursaspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 54.5% | 1.84 | -0.1% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.0% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antalyaspor | 21.2% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Bursaspor | 54.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 46.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.0% |
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor stats
Antalyaspor and Bursaspor recent form
| Antalyaspor |
DLWLWW |
| Bursaspor |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Antalyaspor and Bursaspor season so far
Antalyaspor record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bursaspor record
- They have won 10 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-29 | Antalyaspor | Bursaspor | Türkiye Kupası | 3-0 |
| 2021-01-12 | Bursaspor | Antalyaspor | Türkiye Kupası | 0-3 |
| 2019-05-10 | Antalyaspor | Bursaspor | Süper Lig | 0-1 |
| 2018-12-09 | Bursaspor | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig | 0-2 |
| 2018-03-31 | Antalyaspor | Bursaspor | Süper Lig | 2-0 |
| 2017-10-29 | Bursaspor | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig | 4-0 |
| 2017-05-20 | Antalyaspor | Bursaspor | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2016-12-19 | Bursaspor | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2016-03-14 | Antalyaspor | Bursaspor | Süper Lig | 3-0 |
| 2015-10-17 | Bursaspor | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.2%, draw 24.1%, away 54.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.24 | 3.78 | 1.65 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.65 |
| BetVictor | 4.50 | 3.70 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 4.30 | 3.70 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.40 | 3.85 | 1.71 |
| Marathonbet | 4.15 | 3.78 | 1.63 |
| Pinnacle | 4.41 | 4.26 | 1.70 |
| SBO | 4.29 | 3.41 | 1.61 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .