Ümraniyespor
vs
Kayserispor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kayserispor
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.11.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Kayserispor is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor
| Probability | Ümraniyespor | Draw | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.7% | 27.5% | 46.8% |
| Market | 24.3% | 26.0% | 49.7% |
| Final | 24.7% | 26.4% | 49.0% |
| Edge | +0.4% | +0.4% | -0.7% |
Why Kayserispor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 49.0% × 1.91 − 1).
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor match preview
Ümraniyespor faces Kayserispor in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. According to our model, Ümraniyespor has a 33% chance of winning, while Kayserispor is slightly favored at 38%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Ümraniyespor recording two wins and four mixed results, while Kayserispor has been more consistent with four wins and two draws in their last six matches.
The expected goals suggest a close encounter, with Ümraniyespor anticipated to score 1.26 and Kayserispor 1.35. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams have a 54% likelihood of scoring. This match is expected to provide an intriguing dynamic as both teams vie for crucial points in the league.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor attack and defence ratings
Ümraniyespor
Kayserispor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kayserispor | 49.0% | 2.04 | -0.7% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ümraniyespor | 24.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Kayserispor | 49.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kayserispor win | 24.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.4% |
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor stats
Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor recent form
| Ümraniyespor |
DWWDWL |
| Kayserispor |
WDDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor season so far
Ümraniyespor record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kayserispor record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.3%, draw 26.0%, away 49.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.60 | 3.52 | 1.84 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.45 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.83 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.55 | 1.90 |
| Marathonbet | 3.52 | 3.52 | 1.82 |
| Pinnacle | 3.87 | 3.90 | 1.82 |
| SBO | 3.32 | 3.04 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .