Kayserispor
vs
Muğlaspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kayserispor
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Kayserispor is the favourite, not a value bet.
Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor
| Probability | Kayserispor | Draw | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.2% | 22.3% | 19.5% |
| Market | 66.6% | 20.4% | 13.0% |
| Final | 64.5% | 20.9% | 14.6% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +0.5% | +1.6% |
Why Kayserispor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (our 64.5% × 1.42 − 1).
Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor match preview
Kayserispor enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 58%, reflecting their recent form of two draws followed by four consecutive wins. The expected goals for Kayserispor stand at 2.13, suggesting a solid offensive performance, while Muğlaspor's expected goals are lower at 1.18. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood.
Muğlaspor has shown mixed results recently, with two wins, one loss, and three draws in their last six matches. Their probability of winning is at 19%, with a 62% chance for both teams to score. The model also indicates a 64% likelihood for over 2.5 goals in the match, suggesting an expectation for a competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kayserispor and Muğlaspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Kayserispor and Muğlaspor attack and defence ratings
Kayserispor
Muğlaspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kayserispor | 64.5% | 1.55 | -2.1% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kayserispor | 64.5% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Muğlaspor | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kayserispor win | 36.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 41.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor stats
Kayserispor and Muğlaspor recent form
| Kayserispor |
DDWWWW |
| Muğlaspor |
WWLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kayserispor and Muğlaspor season so far
Kayserispor record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Muğlaspor record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.6%, draw 20.4%, away 13.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 4.45 | 7.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.10 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.50 | 6.70 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.39 | 4.70 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 4.45 | 6.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 4.65 | 7.16 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.04 | 5.99 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .