Sarıyer
vs
Iğdır FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Iğdır FK
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.83.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK
| Probability | Sarıyer | Draw | Iğdır FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 32.3% | 43.6% |
| Market | 36.1% | 29.8% | 34.1% |
| Final | 33.1% | 30.5% | 36.5% |
| Edge | -3.0% | +0.6% | +2.4% |
Why Iğdır FK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Iğdır FK below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.1% per unit staked (our 36.5% × 2.80 − 1).
Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK match preview
Sarıyer faces Iğdır FK in a match where the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Sarıyer at 33%, a draw at 30%, and Iğdır FK slightly favored at 36%. The expected goals suggest a tight game, with Sarıyer projected to score 0.83 and Iğdır FK 1.21. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, occurring with a 14% probability.
In terms of recent form, Sarıyer has struggled with two losses in their last five matches, alongside two draws and one win. Conversely, Iğdır FK has shown more resilience, recording two wins, three draws, and only one loss in their last six games. The head-to-head record favors Iğdır FK slightly, with two wins compared to Sarıyer's one in the last four encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sarıyer and Iğdır FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.05
Sarıyer and Iğdır FK attack and defence ratings
Sarıyer
Iğdır FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iğdır FK | 36.5% | 2.74 | +2.4% | 2.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarıyer | 33.1% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Iğdır FK | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.1% |
| No | 58.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Iğdır FK win | 19.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 14.4% | |
| 0-0 | 14.2% |
Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK stats
Sarıyer and Iğdır FK recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sarıyer and Iğdır FK season so far
Sarıyer record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Iğdır FK record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Sarıyer | Iğdır FK | 1. Lig | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Iğdır FK | Sarıyer | 1. Lig | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Sarıyer | Iğdır FK | 2. Lig | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-28 | Iğdır FK | Sarıyer | 2. Lig | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.1%, draw 29.8%, away 34.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 3.00 | 2.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.13 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.15 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.46 | 3.00 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.67 | 3.26 | 2.76 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 2.96 | 2.58 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .