Karpaty
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
1 – 2 Full time
| 12′ | N. Rusyn | ||
| 22′ | Moha Moukhliss | ||
| 25′ | Luca Meirelles | ||
| 34′ | Valerii Bondar | ||
| 55′ | Newerton Palmares | ||
| 59′ | Fellipe VieiraJ. Sery | ||
| 64′ | Luca MeirellesKaua Elias | ||
| 64′ | Y. NazarynaIsaque Silva | ||
| 64′ | NewertonG. Mendoza | ||
| 67′ | Alisson | ||
| 70′ | AlissonLucas Ferreira | ||
| 79′ | R. VantukhD. Miroshnichenko | ||
| 79′ | I. CaleroB. Iglesias Lois | ||
| 79′ | N. RusynJoaquinete | ||
| 81′ | Lucas Ferreira | ||
| 88′ | X. AlkainY. Karabin | ||
| 90′ | MarlonD. Kryskiv |
Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk
| Probability | Karpaty | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.8% | 26.9% | 22.3% |
| Market | 21.2% | 26.7% | 52.1% |
| Final | 28.6% | 26.7% | 44.7% |
| Edge | +29.6% | +0.2% | -29.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Karpaty and Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Karpaty and Shakhtar Donetsk attack and defence ratings
Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk: result vs prediction
Karpaty 1 – 2 Shakhtar Donetsk
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 44.7% | 2.24 | -29.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karpaty | 28.6% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 44.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win | 8.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.7% | |
| Loss | 78.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk stats
Karpaty and Shakhtar Donetsk recent form
| Karpaty |
DWWWLW |
| Shakhtar Donetsk |
LWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Karpaty and Shakhtar Donetsk going into this match
Karpaty record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Karpaty | Ukraine Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Karpaty | Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine Premier League | 3-3 |
| 2025-03-11 | Karpaty | Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Karpaty | Premier League | 5-2 |
| 2019-11-02 | Karpaty | Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2019-08-04 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Karpaty | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2019-03-10 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Karpaty | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2018-09-28 | Karpaty | Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League | 1-6 |
| 2018-03-04 | Karpaty | Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2017-10-01 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Karpaty | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.5%, draw 25.5%, away 54.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.40 | 3.66 | 1.82 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 5.10 | 3.85 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.10 | 1.56 |
| Marathonbet | 4.55 | 3.44 | 1.76 |
| Pinnacle | 4.29 | 3.50 | 1.79 |
| Superbet | 5.15 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .