UEFA Nations League
·
Full time
·League B - 1
Hungary
vs
Ukraine
0 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | András Schäfer | ||
| 21′ | Volodymyr Brazhko | ||
| 42′ | Danylo Sikan | ||
| 45′ | Milan VitálisMilan Tóth | ||
| 45′ | Volodymyr BrazhkoEgor Nazaryna | ||
| 45′ | Dániel LukácsDonat Barany | ||
| 49′ | Ilya Krupskyi | ||
| 59′ | Ilya KrupskyiValeriy Bondar | ||
| 59′ | Vladyslav VanatOleksandr Nazarenko | ||
| 62′ | Damir RedzicGabor Jurek | ||
| 66′ | Áron CsongvaiRajmund Tóth | ||
| 66′ | Danylo SikanIgor Krasnopir | ||
| 71′ | Oleksandr Nazarenko | ||
| 82′ | Donat Barany | ||
| 84′ | Mark CsingerTamás Szűcs | ||
| 90′ | Heorhii SudakovOleksandr Drambayev | ||
| 90′ | Oleksandr Nazarenko | ||
| 90′ | Dominik Szoboszlai | ||
| 90′ | Viktor Tsygankov | ||
| 90′ | Milos Kerkez | ||
| 90′ | Mykola Matvienko |
Hungary
42%
Draw
28%
Ukraine
30%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 450 | Accurate passes | 336 |
Hungary vs Ukraine overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hungary vs Ukraine
| Probability | Hungary | Draw | Ukraine |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 23.4% | 28.8% |
| Market | 39.5% | 29.9% | 30.6% |
| Final | 41.6% | 28.3% | 30.2% |
| Edge | +8.3% | -6.5% | -1.8% |
Why Hungary
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.55.
- The market prices Hungary below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
89%
3+ goals
72%
No goals
3%
Hungary and Ukraine expected goals
Hungary
2.18
Ukraine
1.55
Total expected goals: 3.73
Hungary and Ukraine attack and defence ratings
Hungary
Attack
1.31 +31%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Ukraine
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
1.28 +28%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Hungary vs Ukraine: result vs prediction
Hungary 0 – 1 Ukraine
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League B - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hungary vs Ukraine markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hungary | 41.6% | 2.41 | +8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hungary | 41.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Ukraine | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hungary win | 31.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 48.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 6.9% |
Hungary vs Ukraine stats
Hungary vs Ukraine head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Hungary vs Ukraine odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.2%, draw 29.7%, away 31.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.24 | 3.16 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.44 | 3.20 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.22 | 3.12 |
| SBO | 2.26 | 3.17 | 3.02 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.42 ▲ +0.22
X
3.20 ▼ -0.05
2
3.12 ▼ -0.08
16 snapshots recorded, from .