Ukraine
vs
Hungary
1 – 2 Full time
| 20′ | Egor Nazaryna | ||
| 52′ | Milan Tóth | ||
| 55′ | Dániel Lukács | ||
| 60′ | Matviy PonomarenkoRoman Yaremchuk | ||
| 60′ | Vladyslav VeletenMaksym Khlan | ||
| 60′ | Igor KrasnopirVladyslav Vanat | ||
| 61′ | Dániel LukácsTamás Szűcs | ||
| 62′ | Alex TóthGabor Jurek | ||
| 70′ | Oleg OcheretkoOleksandr Pikhalyonok | ||
| 72′ | András SchäferRajmund Tóth | ||
| 72′ | Milan TóthJozsef Szalai | ||
| 78′ | Rajmund Tóth | ||
| 83′ | Roman Yaremchuk | ||
| 85′ | Mark Csinger | ||
| 86′ | Egor NazarynaIvan Varfolomeev | ||
| 87′ | Dominik SzoboszlaiÁron Csongvai |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 383 | Accurate passes | 359 |
Ukraine vs Hungary overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ukraine vs Hungary
| Probability | Ukraine | Draw | Hungary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.4% | 28.3% | 47.3% |
| Market | 36.0% | 31.1% | 32.9% |
| Final | 33.1% | 30.4% | 36.5% |
| Edge | -11.6% | -2.8% | +14.4% |
Why Hungary
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.03.
- The market prices Hungary below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ukraine and Hungary expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Ukraine and Hungary attack and defence ratings
Ukraine
Hungary
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ukraine vs Hungary: result vs prediction
Ukraine 1 – 2 Hungary
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League B - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ukraine vs Hungary markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hungary | 36.5% | 2.74 | +14.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ukraine | 33.1% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Hungary | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hungary win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
Ukraine vs Hungary stats
Ukraine vs Hungary head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Hungary | Ukraine | UEFA Nations League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ukraine vs Hungary odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 31.1%, away 32.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.72 | 3.08 | 2.94 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.10 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
| Marathonbet | 2.69 | 3.05 | 2.91 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 3.01 | 2.97 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 3.04 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.88 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .