Roan United
vs
Red Arrows
Garuda Lions Prediction: Red Arrows
0 – 1 Predicted score · 21% model probability
Roan United vs Red Arrows overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roan United vs Red Arrows
| Probability | Roan United | Draw | Red Arrows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.7% | 40.1% | 41.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 18.7% | 40.1% | 41.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Red Arrows
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.86 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Roan United vs Red Arrows match preview
Roan United faces Red Arrows in the Zambia Super League on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Roan United has a 19% chance of winning, while Red Arrows holds a slight edge with a 41% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a 21% likelihood. Roan United's expected goals stand at 0.49, indicating a struggle to find the net, while Red Arrows has a higher expected goal tally of 0.86.
Recent form shows Roan United with a record of L-D-W, contrasting sharply with Red Arrows, who have won their last six matches, including a recent draw. The model suggests a low probability of over 2.5 goals at 16% and a 24% chance for both teams to score, reflecting a potentially tight contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roan United and Red Arrows expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.36
Roan United and Red Arrows attack and defence ratings
Roan United
Red Arrows
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes — team news & stats
- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Power Dynamos
- Mufulira Wanderers v Chirundu Utd — match page
- NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers — team news & stats
- Nkwazi vs Green Eagles
- ZESCO United v Mutondo Stars — match page
- Zanaco vs Kansanshi Dynamos — team news & stats
- Konkola Blades vs Nkana
Before and after this match
Roan United vs Red Arrows markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 84.4% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roan United | 18.7% |
| Draw | 40.1% | |
| Red Arrows | 41.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 15.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 84.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 23.6% |
| No | 76.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 59.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Arrows win | 14.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 58.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 26.8% |
| 0-1 | 21.2% | |
| 1-1 | 12.1% |
Roan United vs Red Arrows stats
Roan United and Red Arrows recent form
| Roan United |
LDW |
| Red Arrows |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.