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Bolivia Primera División · Full time ·Apertura - 20

Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ

4 – 2 Full time

15′edwin padro
33′Martín Cauteruccio
37′Dairon Asprilla
45′Robson Matheus
45′D. AkologoGermán Arauz
45′edwin padroJ. Ramallo
45′Luis ZeballosMatheus Moresche
48′Sebastian Villarroel Rojas
48′Juan Ignacio Goyeneche
59′Luiz Fernando Paz Vargas
60′J. Ramallo
62′Zein Teran AntezanaRonaldo Monteiro
73′Robson MatheusBilly Arce
73′Jhon velasquezJohn García
74′Samuel Galindo
79′Samuel GalindoDaniel Moisés Calero Salazar
84′Martín Cauterucciodorny romero
84′Carlos MelgarErvin vaca
89′Luiz Fernando Paz VargasJesus Manuel Sagredo
90′dorny romero
90′Andrés Nicolás Landa Medreno

Estadio Hernando Siles, La PazReferee: J. C. Huanca

Bolívar 86%
Draw 10%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 5%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

30 Shots 10
14 Shots on target 2
70 Possession % 30
10 Corners 0
7 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 1
0 Saves 10
520 Accurate passes 171

Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBolívarDrawGualberto Villarroel SJ
Model86.4%9.7%3.8%
Market85.4%9.8%4.8%
Final85.7%9.8%4.5%
Edge+1.0%-0.1%-0.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Bolívar

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.32 vs 0.67.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bolívar ↓ / Gualberto Vill → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 3 11% 4+ 22% 15%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 2%

Bolívar and Gualberto Villarroel SJ expected goals

Bolívar 3.32
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 0.67

Total expected goals: 3.99

Bolívar and Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack and defence ratings

Bolívar

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ: result vs prediction

Bolívar 4 – 2 Gualberto Villarroel SJ

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 20 fixtures

Bolivia Primera División

Before and after this match

Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bolívar 85.7% 1.17 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.0% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score No 52.5% 1.90 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 95.5% 1.05 — —
Handicap -1 Bolívar win 70.7% 1.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bolívar85.7%
Draw9.8%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ4.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.0%
Under 2.524.0%
Both teams to scoreYes47.5%
No52.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)95.5%
12 (either side)90.2%
X2 (draw or away)14.3%
Handicap -1Bolívar win70.7%
Push (exactly one goal)15.7%
Loss13.6%
Correct score (top 3)3-011.3%
2-010.2%
4-09.4%

Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ stats

Bolívar and Gualberto Villarroel SJ recent form

newest first
Bolívar WWWWLW
Gualberto Villarroel SJ LLDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bolívar and Gualberto Villarroel SJ going into this match

league record before kick-off

Bolívar record

  • They have won 13 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 19 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Gualberto Villarroel SJ record

  • They have won 2 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 19 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 19 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).

Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Bolívar wins 0Draws 3Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-02Gualberto Villarroel SJBolívarCopa de la División Profesional0-1
2026-05-03Gualberto Villarroel SJBolívarBolivia Primera División1-2
2025-09-28Gualberto Villarroel SJBolívarBolivia Primera División0-2
2025-06-08BolívarGualberto Villarroel SJBolivia Primera División1-3
2025-02-22BolívarGualberto Villarroel SJTorneo Amistoso de Verano7-1
2025-02-16Gualberto Villarroel SJBolívarTorneo Amistoso de Verano1-2
2024-11-27Gualberto Villarroel SJBolívarPrimera División3-2
2024-07-31BolívarGualberto Villarroel SJPrimera División4-0
2024-04-07Gualberto Villarroel SJBolívarPrimera División2-1
2024-02-17BolívarGualberto Villarroel SJPrimera División3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 85.4%, draw 9.8%, away 4.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.04 9.20 19.50
Bet365 1.08 12.00 17.00
BetVictor 1.06 10.50 19.00
Betano 1.10 8.50 15.50
Betfair 1.06 10.50 17.00
Marathonbet 1.04 9.20 19.75
William Hill 1.10 8.00 23.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.06 ▼ -0.04
X 9.20 ▲ +1.60
2 19.00 ▲ +4.00

6 snapshots recorded, from .