America Mineiro
vs
Avai
Garuda Lions Prediction: Avai
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Avai is the favourite, not a value bet.
America Mineiro vs Avai overview
Garuda Lions analysis: America Mineiro vs Avai
| Probability | America Mineiro | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 35.2% | 20.2% |
| Market | 24.1% | 26.2% | 49.7% |
| Final | 29.2% | 28.4% | 42.3% |
| Edge | +5.1% | +2.3% | -7.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.7% per unit staked (our 42.3% × 1.92 − 1).
America Mineiro vs Avai match preview
America Mineiro faces Avai in a Brazil Serie B matchup on November 14, 2026. The probabilities indicate that Avai has a 41% chance of winning, while America Mineiro stands at 30% and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline, according to our model, is 0-1 in favor of Avai, with a 10% probability. America Mineiro's expected goals are 1.07, compared to Avai's 0.63, suggesting a tighter contest than the probabilities might imply.
In terms of recent form, America Mineiro has recorded four wins followed by two losses, while Avai has a mixed record with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. The head-to-head record shows America Mineiro with one win and Avai with two wins in their last three encounters, adding an interesting dynamic to this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
America Mineiro and Avai expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.71
America Mineiro and Avai attack and defence ratings
America Mineiro
Avai
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
America Mineiro vs Avai markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 42.3% | 2.36 | -7.4% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America Mineiro | 29.2% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Avai | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.1% |
| No | 67.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win | 5.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.6% | |
| Loss | 79.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.4% |
| 1-0 | 18.2% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
America Mineiro vs Avai stats
America Mineiro and Avai recent form
| America Mineiro |
WWWWLL |
| Avai |
WLLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
America Mineiro and Avai season so far
America Mineiro record
- They have won 7 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avai record
- They have won 10 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
America Mineiro vs Avai head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Avai | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-02 | America Mineiro | Avai | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Avai | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
America Mineiro vs Avai odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.1%, draw 26.2%, away 49.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.85 | 3.62 | 1.84 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.25 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.87 |
| Dafabet | 4.00 | 3.55 | 1.92 |
| Marathonbet | 3.84 | 3.62 | 1.82 |
| Pinnacle | 3.80 | 3.72 | 1.88 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .