Criciuma
vs
Novorizontino
Garuda Lions Prediction: Novorizontino
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Criciuma vs Novorizontino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Criciuma vs Novorizontino
| Probability | Criciuma | Draw | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.7% | 29.4% | 47.9% |
| Market | 36.7% | 30.1% | 33.3% |
| Final | 33.2% | 29.9% | 36.9% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -0.2% | +3.7% |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Novorizontino below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.9% per unit staked (our 36.9% × 2.95 − 1).
Criciuma vs Novorizontino match preview
Criciuma faces Novorizontino in a Brazil Serie B matchup on November 14, 2026. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Criciuma at 34%, Novorizontino at 35%, and a draw at 31%. According to the model, the most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Novorizontino, with expected goals of 0.91 for Criciuma and 1.43 for Novorizontino.
Recent form shows Criciuma with a record of L-W-L-W-W-L, while Novorizontino is on a strong run with W-W-W-D-W-W. In their last three encounters, Criciuma has secured 2 wins and 1 draw against Novorizontino, who has not won any of those matches. The model suggests a 41% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 47% likelihood for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Criciuma and Novorizontino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Criciuma and Novorizontino attack and defence ratings
Criciuma
Novorizontino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
Criciuma vs Novorizontino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 36.9% | 2.71 | +3.7% | 2.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Criciuma | 33.2% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Novorizontino | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Criciuma vs Novorizontino stats
Criciuma and Novorizontino recent form
| Criciuma |
LWLWWL |
| Novorizontino |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Criciuma and Novorizontino season so far
Criciuma record
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino record
- They have won 19 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Criciuma vs Novorizontino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Novorizontino | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Criciuma | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-21 | Novorizontino | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Criciuma vs Novorizontino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.7%, draw 30.1%, away 33.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 2.96 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.15 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.54 | 2.96 | 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.04 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.88 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .