São Bernardo
vs
Athletic Club
Garuda Lions Prediction: São Bernardo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.17.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club overview
Garuda Lions analysis: São Bernardo vs Athletic Club
| Probability | São Bernardo | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.4% | 22.7% | 19.9% |
| Market | 48.4% | 27.3% | 24.2% |
| Final | 50.7% | 26.2% | 23.2% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -1.1% | -1.1% |
Why São Bernardo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices São Bernardo below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 50.7% × 1.95 − 1).
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club match preview
São Bernardo faces Athletic Club in a Brazil Serie B matchup with São Bernardo holding a 53% probability of winning, compared to Athletic Club's 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 58% likelihood for both teams to find the net and for the match to have over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, São Bernardo has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Athletic Club has managed one win in their last six as well. The expected goals for São Bernardo stand at 1.86, while Athletic Club is projected at 1.14. Historically, in their last encounter, Athletic Club secured a victory over São Bernardo.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
São Bernardo and Athletic Club expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
São Bernardo and Athletic Club attack and defence ratings
São Bernardo
Athletic Club
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 50.7% | 1.97 | +2.2% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 50.7% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Athletic Club | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | São Bernardo win | 35.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 42.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club stats
São Bernardo and Athletic Club recent form
| São Bernardo |
LWWLDL |
| Athletic Club |
LWLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
São Bernardo and Athletic Club season so far
São Bernardo record
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club record
- They have won 11 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Athletic Club | São Bernardo | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.4%, draw 27.3%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.44 | 3.82 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.44 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.88 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .