Fortaleza EC
vs
Vila Nova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortaleza EC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Fortaleza EC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
| Probability | Fortaleza EC | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.8% | 30.3% | 29.9% |
| Market | 40.3% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Final | 40.1% | 30.0% | 29.9% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (our 40.1% × 2.34 − 1).
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova match preview
Fortaleza EC faces Vila Nova in a Brazil Serie B matchup, with Fortaleza EC holding a 40% probability of winning, while both a draw and a Vila Nova victory sit at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Fortaleza EC, with an 11% chance. Expected goals suggest Fortaleza EC will score 1.29, compared to Vila Nova's 1.08.
In terms of recent form, Fortaleza EC has recorded one win in their last six matches, with the latest results showing L-D-D-W-D-W. Vila Nova, on the other hand, has been more consistent, with two wins in their last six games, including a recent W-D-L-D-W-D streak. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova attack and defence ratings
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 40.1% | 2.49 | -0.1% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 40.1% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Vila Nova | 29.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 60.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.7% |
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova stats
Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova recent form
| Fortaleza EC |
LDDWDW |
| Vila Nova |
WDLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova season so far
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova record
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Vila Nova | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 29.9%, away 29.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.04 | 3.13 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.33 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.04 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.12 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .