Sport Recife
vs
Goias
Garuda Lions Prediction: Goias
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Goias is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sport Recife vs Goias overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sport Recife vs Goias
| Probability | Sport Recife | Draw | Goias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.8% | 29.6% | 37.6% |
| Market | 30.9% | 26.1% | 43.1% |
| Final | 31.3% | 27.0% | 41.7% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.9% | -1.4% |
Why Goias
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (our 41.7% × 2.20 − 1).
Sport Recife vs Goias match preview
Sport Recife faces Goias in the Brazil Serie B, with the probabilities indicating a competitive match. Sport Recife has a 33% chance of winning, while Goias holds a 40% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to score, with a likelihood of 52%, and the model suggests a total of 45% for over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Sport Recife has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last five matches (L-D-W-L-D-W), while Goias is on a strong run, winning their last five games (W-W-W-D-W-W). The expected goals for Sport Recife stand at 1.19, compared to Goias's 1.29, indicating a slight edge for the visitors in offensive potential.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sport Recife and Goias expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.49
Sport Recife and Goias attack and defence ratings
Sport Recife
Goias
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sport Recife vs Goias markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Goias | 41.7% | 2.40 | -1.4% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 31.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Goias | 41.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Goias win | 17.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 62.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-0 | 9.6% | |
| 0-1 | 9.5% |
Sport Recife vs Goias stats
Sport Recife and Goias recent form
| Sport Recife |
LDWLDW |
| Goias |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sport Recife and Goias season so far
Sport Recife record
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Goias record
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Recife vs Goias head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Goias | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sport Recife vs Goias odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.9%, draw 26.1%, away 43.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 3.55 | 2.14 |
| Pinnacle | 3.08 | 3.74 | 2.13 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .