Ponte Preta
vs
Operario-PR
Garuda Lions Prediction: Operario-PR
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.85.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Operario-PR is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR
| Probability | Ponte Preta | Draw | Operario-PR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.9% | 24.6% | 59.4% |
| Market | 18.7% | 23.6% | 57.6% |
| Final | 18.0% | 23.9% | 58.1% |
| Edge | -0.7% | +0.3% | +0.4% |
Why Operario-PR
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.69, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (our 58.1% × 1.69 − 1).
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR match preview
Ponte Preta faces Operario-PR in a Brazil Serie B matchup, with Ponte Preta holding an 18% probability of winning, while Operario-PR stands at 58%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, with expected goals of 0.85 for Ponte Preta and 1.82 for Operario-PR. Recent form shows Ponte Preta struggling with six consecutive matches without a win, while Operario-PR has mixed results, winning two of their last six.
The model indicates a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability that both teams will score. In their last head-to-head encounter, Operario-PR secured a victory, adding to Ponte Preta's challenges as they seek to improve their performance. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ponte Preta and Operario-PR expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Ponte Preta and Operario-PR attack and defence ratings
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Operario-PR | 58.1% | 1.72 | +0.4% | 1.69 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponte Preta | 18.0% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Operario-PR | 58.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Operario-PR win | 35.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | |
| 0-2 | 11.5% |
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR stats
Ponte Preta and Operario-PR recent form
| Ponte Preta |
LLDDLL |
| Operario-PR |
WLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ponte Preta and Operario-PR season so far
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 3 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 19 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Operario-PR record
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Operario-PR | Ponte Preta | Brazil Serie B | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.7%, draw 23.6%, away 57.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.92 | 3.92 | 1.61 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 5.30 | 3.95 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 3.92 | 1.59 |
| Pinnacle | 4.62 | 3.87 | 1.69 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .