Juventude
vs
Botafogo SP
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventude
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventude is the favourite, not a value bet.
Juventude vs Botafogo SP overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juventude vs Botafogo SP
| Probability | Juventude | Draw | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.0% | 27.3% | 24.7% |
| Market | 64.3% | 22.9% | 12.9% |
| Final | 60.2% | 24.0% | 15.8% |
| Edge | -4.1% | +1.1% | +3.0% |
Why Juventude
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.09.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.5% per unit staked (our 60.2% × 1.47 − 1).
Juventude vs Botafogo SP match preview
Juventude faces Botafogo SP in a Brazil Serie B clash, with Juventude holding a 48% probability of winning compared to Botafogo SP's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Juventude, with an expected goals tally of 1.60 for Juventude and 1.09 for Botafogo SP. Both teams have shown competitive form recently, with Juventude recording a sequence of results including three wins and two draws, while Botafogo SP has been in strong form, winning their last six matches.
In their last head-to-head encounter, Botafogo SP secured a victory over Juventude, contributing to a trend where Juventude has yet to win against this opponent. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 50%, and there is a 54% chance that both teams will score in this match, indicating a potentially dynamic contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juventude and Botafogo SP expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Juventude and Botafogo SP attack and defence ratings
Juventude
Botafogo SP
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juventude vs Botafogo SP markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 60.2% | 1.66 | -4.1% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 60.2% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Botafogo SP | 15.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Juventude vs Botafogo SP stats
Juventude and Botafogo SP recent form
| Juventude |
WDWDDW |
| Botafogo SP |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juventude and Botafogo SP season so far
Juventude record
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 23 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Botafogo SP record
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventude vs Botafogo SP head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Botafogo SP | Juventude | Brazil Serie B | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juventude vs Botafogo SP odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.3%, draw 22.9%, away 12.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 3.90 | 7.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.90 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.05 | 7.20 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.10 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 4.30 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 3.90 | 7.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 4.15 | 7.97 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .