CRB
vs
Ceara
Garuda Lions Prediction: CRB
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.87.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CRB is the favourite, not a value bet.
CRB vs Ceara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CRB vs Ceara
| Probability | CRB | Draw | Ceara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 22.8% | 14.5% |
| Market | 65.5% | 21.2% | 13.3% |
| Final | 64.8% | 21.6% | 13.6% |
| Edge | -0.7% | +0.4% | +0.3% |
Why CRB
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 64.8% × 1.47 − 1).
CRB vs Ceara match preview
CRB is set to face Ceara in the Brazil Serie B on November 14, 2026, with a strong probability of winning at 63%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.11 for CRB compared to 0.95 for Ceara. Recent form shows CRB with a mixed record of W-L-W-L-D-W, while Ceara has struggled, recording L-L-D-L-W-W.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 59%, and both teams scoring stands at 55%. In their last head-to-head encounter, CRB secured a victory, marking their dominance with 1 win and no draws against Ceara. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CRB and Ceara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
CRB and Ceara attack and defence ratings
CRB
Ceara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
CRB vs Ceara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CRB | 64.8% | 1.54 | -0.7% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CRB win | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CRB | 64.8% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| Ceara | 13.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | CRB win | 39.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 37.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.9% | |
| 1-0 | 10.4% |
CRB vs Ceara stats
CRB and Ceara recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CRB and Ceara season so far
CRB record
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Ceara record
- They have won 11 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 36 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CRB vs Ceara head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Ceara | CRB | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CRB vs Ceara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.5%, draw 21.2%, away 13.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 4.40 | 6.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.10 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.30 | 7.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.47 | 7.21 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .