Atletico Goianiense
vs
Cuiaba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Goianiense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.67.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Goianiense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba
| Probability | Atletico Goianiense | Draw | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.8% | 29.1% | 16.1% |
| Market | 65.0% | 22.7% | 12.3% |
| Final | 62.4% | 24.3% | 13.3% |
| Edge | -2.6% | +1.6% | +0.9% |
Why Atletico Goianiense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.1% per unit staked (our 62.4% × 1.44 − 1).
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba match preview
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba are set to clash in the Brazil Serie B, with Atletico Goianiense holding a 50% probability of winning according to our model, while a draw is at 33% and Cuiaba at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an 18% probability. Atletico Goianiense has an expected goals tally of 1.22, significantly higher than Cuiaba's 0.61, indicating a potential advantage in offensive performance.
Recent form shows Atletico Goianiense with a mixed record of D-L-D-D-L-W, while Cuiaba is struggling with five consecutive losses followed by a draw. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Atletico Goianiense has secured one victory and two draws, with Cuiaba yet to win. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba attack and defence ratings
Atletico Goianiense
Cuiaba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 62.4% | 1.60 | -2.6% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 62.4% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Cuiaba | 13.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 45.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.2% |
| 0-0 | 13.1% | |
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba stats
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba recent form
| Atletico Goianiense |
WDLDDL |
| Cuiaba |
LLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba season so far
Atletico Goianiense record
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cuiaba record
- They have won 11 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Cuiaba | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Cuiaba | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-22 | Atletico Goianiense | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.0%, draw 22.7%, away 12.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.10 | 7.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 3.90 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.90 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.05 | 7.70 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.44 | 4.20 | 8.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 4.10 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 4.17 | 7.53 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.90 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .