Londrina
vs
Nautico Recife
Garuda Lions Prediction: Londrina
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Londrina is the favourite, not a value bet.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Londrina vs Nautico Recife
| Probability | Londrina | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.8% | 26.5% | 22.7% |
| Market | 59.1% | 22.4% | 18.5% |
| Final | 57.0% | 23.4% | 19.6% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +1.0% | +1.0% |
Why Londrina
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.06.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (our 57.0% × 1.62 − 1).
Londrina vs Nautico Recife match preview
Londrina faces Nautico Recife in a Brazil Serie B matchup with Londrina holding a 57% probability of winning, compared to Nautico Recife's 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.68 for Londrina and 1.06 for Nautico Recife. Recent form shows Londrina struggling with three losses in their last five matches, while Nautico Recife has also faced difficulties, winning only one of their last six.
In their last ten encounters, Londrina has a strong record against Nautico Recife, securing six victories and two draws, while Nautico Recife has won twice. The model indicates a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood of both teams scoring, suggesting a potentially competitive match despite recent performances.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Londrina and Nautico Recife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Londrina and Nautico Recife attack and defence ratings
Londrina
Nautico Recife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
Before and after this match
Londrina vs Nautico Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Londrina | 57.0% | 1.75 | -2.1% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Londrina | 57.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Nautico Recife | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% |
| No | 45.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Londrina win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
Londrina vs Nautico Recife stats
Londrina and Nautico Recife recent form
| Londrina |
LLLWDL |
| Nautico Recife |
LWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Londrina and Nautico Recife season so far
Londrina record
- They have won 8 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 12 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Nautico Recife | Londrina | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Londrina | Nautico Recife | Serie C | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-24 | Londrina | Nautico Recife | Serie C | 3-2 |
| 2022-07-23 | Nautico Recife | Londrina | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2022-04-10 | Londrina | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-22 | Nautico Recife | Londrina | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2021-06-23 | Londrina | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2017-11-11 | Nautico Recife | Londrina | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2017-07-22 | Londrina | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2016-08-30 | Nautico Recife | Londrina | Serie B | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.1%, draw 22.4%, away 18.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 4.15 | 5.06 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.15 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 4.29 | 5.01 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .