Shanghai Shenhua
vs
Yunnan Yukun
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shanghai Shenhua
3 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun
| Probability | Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 18.3% | 30.5% |
| Market | 60.3% | 19.1% | 20.6% |
| Final | 58.0% | 18.9% | 23.1% |
| Edge | -9.1% | -0.8% | +9.9% |
Why Shanghai Shenhua
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 2.27.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun match preview
Shanghai Shenhua faces Yunnan Yukun in an upcoming China Super League match, with model probabilities indicating a 52% chance of a home win, an 18% likelihood of a draw, and a 30% chance for an away victory. The expected goals suggest a high-scoring encounter, with Shanghai Shenhua projected at 2.89 and Yunnan Yukun at 2.26. The most likely scoreline is 3-2, occurring with a 6% probability.
In terms of recent form, Shanghai Shenhua has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Yunnan Yukun has two wins, one draw, and three losses in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters shows one win for each team and one draw, indicating a competitive matchup. Both teams have a high probability of scoring, with 85% for both teams to score and 89% for over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.14
Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun attack and defence ratings
Shanghai Shenhua
Yunnan Yukun
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye — team news & stats
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan
- Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG
- Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda — team news & stats
- Qingdao Youth Island v Dalian Zhixing — match page
- Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns — team news & stats
- Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
Before and after this match
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 58.0% | 1.72 | -9.1% | 1.58 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 58.0% |
| Draw | 18.9% | |
| Yunnan Yukun | 23.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 11.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 84.9% |
| No | 15.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shanghai Shenhua win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 6.2% |
| 3-2 | 6.0% | |
| 2-1 | 5.5% |
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun stats
Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun recent form
| Shanghai Shenhua |
WLWLWW |
| Yunnan Yukun |
WLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun season so far
Shanghai Shenhua record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yunnan Yukun record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Yunnan Yukun | Shanghai Shenhua | China Super League | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Yunnan Yukun | Shanghai Shenhua | China Super League | 4-4 |
| 2025-04-02 | Shanghai Shenhua | Yunnan Yukun | China Super League | 3-1 |
| 2023-06-23 | Yunnan Yukun | Shanghai Shenhua | FA Cup | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.3%, draw 19.1%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 5.03 | 4.66 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.75 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.80 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.90 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 5.00 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.52 | 4.85 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 5.14 | 4.34 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 4.18 | 3.92 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.60 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .