Chongqing Tongliang Long
vs
Shandong Luneng
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shandong Luneng
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
| Probability | Chongqing Tongliang Long | Draw | Shandong Luneng |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.9% | 28.6% | 43.5% |
| Market | 37.6% | 27.0% | 35.5% |
| Final | 35.1% | 27.4% | 37.5% |
| Edge | -9.6% | +1.6% | +8.1% |
Why Shandong Luneng
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Shandong Luneng below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng match preview
Chongqing Tongliang Long faces Shandong Luneng in the China Super League, with model probabilities indicating a 28% chance for a Chongqing win, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 43% chance for Shandong Luneng to secure the victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Expected goals suggest Chongqing will score 1.13 while Shandong is projected to net 1.45.
Recent form shows Chongqing Tongliang Long struggling with six matches yielding only one draw, while Shandong Luneng has found success, winning four of their last six games. In their previous encounter, Shandong Luneng emerged victorious, maintaining a perfect record against Chongqing. The probabilities reflect a moderate confidence grade of C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng attack and defence ratings
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Shandong Luneng
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye — team news & stats
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan
- Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG
- Shanghai Shenhua v Yunnan Yukun — match page
- Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda — team news & stats
- Qingdao Youth Island v Dalian Zhixing — match page
- Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shandong Luneng | 37.5% | 2.67 | +8.1% | 2.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 35.1% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Shandong Luneng | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shandong Luneng win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng stats
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng recent form
| Chongqing Tongliang Long |
LDLDLL |
| Shandong Luneng |
DWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng season so far
Chongqing Tongliang Long record
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shandong Luneng record
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Shandong Luneng | Chongqing Tongliang Long | China Super League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 27.0%, away 35.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.50 | 2.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.38 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.49 | 2.70 |
| SBO | 2.37 | 3.04 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .