Garuda Lions
Today
Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 12

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima

2 – 2 Full time

6′Yesid Díaz
10′Jordan Garcia
27′Homer Martinez
30′Yesid Díaz
33′Santiago Vivas Vélez
33′Brandón Andrés Mejía Fajardo
45′Homer MartinezSebastian Guzman
45′Cristian ArrietaBrayan Rovira
45′Junior HernandezJorge Hurtado
47′Jan Angulo
51′Juan Sebastian Herrera
56′Ever Valencia
64′Mariano VázquezJhoiner Salas
64′Santiago Vivas VélezItalo Montano Cortes
68′S. AguayoLuis Sanchez
68′Ever ValenciaLuis Sandoval
71′Jordan GarciaLeonardo Pico
73′Jorge Hurtado
76′Italo Montano Cortes
77′Shean Barbosa
80′Brandón Andrés Mejía FajardoFranco Pulicastro
80′Santiago CueroJulio Sinisterra
84′Sebastian Guzman
90′Teun Wilke
90′Luis Sandoval
90′Sebastian Navarro

Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, BogotaReferee: Luis Matorel Bolivar

Fortaleza FC 33%
Draw 29%
Deportes Tolima 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 1
57 Possession % 43
8 Corners 0
16 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 1
0 Saves 4
380 Accurate passes 272

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFortaleza FCDrawDeportes Tolima
Model44.1%28.7%27.2%
Market29.6%29.6%40.8%
Final33.2%29.4%37.4%
Edge+14.5%-0.9%-13.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Deportes Tolima

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fortaleza FC ↓ / Deportes Tolim → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 7% 1 10% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima expected goals

Fortaleza FC 1.45
Deportes Tolima 1.09

Total expected goals: 2.54

Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings

Fortaleza FC

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.30 +30%

Deportes Tolima

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima: result vs prediction

Fortaleza FC 2 – 2 Deportes Tolima

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportes Tolima 37.4% 2.67 -13.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.3% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.1% 1.92 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.6% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 72.8% 1.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fortaleza FC33.2%
Draw29.4%
Deportes Tolima37.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%
Both teams to scoreYes52.1%
No47.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.6%
12 (either side)70.6%
X2 (draw or away)66.8%
Handicap -1Deportes Tolima win11.0%
Push (exactly one goal)16.2%
Loss72.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-010.2%
0-09.1%

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima stats

Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima recent form

newest first
Fortaleza FC LDDLDL
Deportes Tolima DLLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima going into this match

league record before kick-off

Fortaleza FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Deportes Tolima record

  • They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Fortaleza FC wins 4Draws 3Deportes Tolima wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-19Deportes TolimaFortaleza FCPrimera A2-0
2025-12-08Deportes TolimaFortaleza FCPrimera A1-0
2025-11-18Fortaleza FCDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-1
2025-08-31Deportes TolimaFortaleza FCPrimera A1-1
2025-03-15Fortaleza FCDeportes TolimaPrimera A1-1
2024-07-20Fortaleza FCDeportes TolimaPrimera A1-1
2024-01-20Deportes TolimaFortaleza FCPrimera A1-2
2016-07-13Deportes TolimaFortaleza FCPrimera A0-0
2016-02-13Fortaleza FCDeportes TolimaPrimera A2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.6%, draw 29.6%, away 40.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.15 3.12 2.26
Bet365 3.40 3.10 2.30
BetVictor 3.10 3.13 2.25
Betano 3.25 3.05 2.30
Betfair 3.10 3.25 2.25
Marathonbet 3.12 3.12 2.24
Pinnacle 3.24 3.27 2.31
SBO 2.83 2.91 2.11
William Hill 3.10 3.00 2.30

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.