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DBU Pokalen · Full time ·Round of 32

AB Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske

3 – 1 Full time

15′M. Stenner
22′G. Wagner
43′B. Tambedou
46′B. TambedouO. De Rosario
46′M. OlesenM. Haidara
46′M. RasmussenS. Diop
46′A. KoudelkaA. Liu
53′O. De Rosario
57′M. Hoppe
61′C. Grening
65′L. QamiliI. Seydi
69′C. GreningT. Damtoft
70′M. HoppeA. Bergholt
71′A. Horup
74′M. StennerM. Brund
83′G. WagnerM. Soulas
86′J. Fernandes
87′A. HorupV. Stokbro
90′S. Diop
AB Copenhagen 30%
Draw 27%
Sonderjyske 43%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

AB Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AB Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAB CopenhagenDrawSonderjyske
Model22.2%28.7%49.1%
Market32.1%27.1%40.8%
Final29.6%27.5%42.9%
Edge-9.9%+1.7%+8.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Sonderjyske

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.93.
  • The market prices Sonderjyske below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AB Copenhagen ↓ / Sonderjyske → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 12% 10% 1 7% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

AB Copenhagen and Sonderjyske expected goals

AB Copenhagen 0.93
Sonderjyske 1.48

Total expected goals: 2.41

AB Copenhagen and Sonderjyske attack and defence ratings

AB Copenhagen

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Sonderjyske

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AB Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske: result vs prediction

AB Copenhagen 3 – 1 Sonderjyske

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 32 fixtures

DBU Pokalen

Before and after this match

AB Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sonderjyske 42.9% 2.33 +8.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.8% 1.76 — —
Both teams to score No 52.2% 1.92 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.5% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.1% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AB Copenhagen29.6%
Draw27.5%
Sonderjyske42.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.2%
Under 2.556.8%
Both teams to scoreYes47.8%
No52.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.1%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)70.4%
Handicap -1Sonderjyske win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss51.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
0-112.1%
0-010.2%

AB Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske stats

AB Copenhagen and Sonderjyske recent form

newest first
AB Copenhagen LLLWDW
Sonderjyske DLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AB Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

AB Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 27.1%, away 40.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.85 3.28 2.22
Bet365 2.80 3.60 2.25
BetVictor 2.80 3.50 2.20
Betano 2.90 3.45 2.30
Betfair 2.70 3.50 2.20
Marathonbet 2.78 3.28 2.20
Pinnacle 2.81 3.32 2.23
SBO 2.57 3.10 2.13
William Hill 2.80 3.10 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▼ -0.11
X 3.32 ▲ +0.02
2 2.20 ▲ +0.02

3 snapshots recorded, from .