Guiseley AFC
vs
Sutton Utd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guiseley AFC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.92.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd
| Probability | Guiseley AFC | Draw | Sutton Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.2% | 22.5% | 15.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 62.2% | 22.5% | 15.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Guiseley AFC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd match preview
Guiseley AFC enters the match against Sutton Utd with a strong probability of winning at 62%, reflecting their recent form of four wins, one draw, and one loss. The expected goals for Guiseley are 2.04, indicating a solid attacking performance, while Sutton Utd has an expected goals figure of 0.92, suggesting they may struggle offensively. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with an 11% probability.
Sutton Utd's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, two losses, and one draw. The probabilities indicate a 23% chance of a draw and a 15% chance of a Sutton Utd victory. Additionally, there is a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams have a 53% chance of scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guiseley AFC and Sutton Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Guiseley AFC and Sutton Utd attack and defence ratings
Guiseley AFC
Sutton Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guiseley AFC | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Guiseley AFC win | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guiseley AFC | 62.2% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Sutton Utd | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% |
| No | 46.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guiseley AFC win | 39.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 37.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.8% |
| 1-1 | 10.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd stats
Guiseley AFC and Sutton Utd recent form
| Guiseley AFC |
WWWWDL |
| Sutton Utd |
WLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.