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3. Liga · ·Matchday 13

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Ingolstadt 04

1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.98.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on FC Ingolstadt 04

Audi Sportpark, IngolstadtReferee: Felix Grund

FC Ingolstadt 04 39%
Draw 27%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Ingolstadt 04 wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
91%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
50%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
11% of simulated outcomes

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC Ingolstadt 04DrawFortuna Düsseldorf
Model48.6%28.2%23.2%
Market35.4%26.9%37.8%
Final38.7%27.2%34.1%
Edge+3.3%+0.3%-3.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Ingolstadt 04

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Ingolstadt 04 below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.4% per unit staked (our 38.7% × 2.70 − 1).

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf match preview

FC Ingolstadt 04 faces Fortuna Düsseldorf in a 3. Liga match with kickoff scheduled for November 7, 2026. According to our model, FC Ingolstadt 04 has a 49% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 28% and Fortuna Düsseldorf at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of FC Ingolstadt 04, with an 11% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.52 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 0.98 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

In terms of recent form, FC Ingolstadt 04 has recorded a draw followed by three wins, but also two losses, while Fortuna Düsseldorf's latest results show two draws, a loss, a win, and two more draws. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 46%, and both teams are predicted to score at a rate of 50%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Ingolstadt ↓ / Fortuna Düssel → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 7% 1 11% 13% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1.52
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.98

Total expected goals: 2.51

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf attack and defence ratings

FC Ingolstadt 04

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Ingolstadt 04 38.7% 2.59 +3.3% 2.70
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.2% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.2% 1.99 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.8% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.4% 1.94 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Ingolstadt 0438.7%
Draw27.2%
Fortuna Düsseldorf34.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%
Both teams to scoreYes50.2%
No49.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.9%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)61.3%
Handicap -1FC Ingolstadt 04 win25.4%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss51.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-011.2%
2-09.5%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf stats

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf recent form

newest first
FC Ingolstadt 04 DWWWLL
Fortuna Düsseldorf DDLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf season so far

league record

FC Ingolstadt 04 record

  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Fortuna Düsseldorf record

  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2FC Ingolstadt 04 wins 3Draws 5Fortuna Düsseldorf wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-03-06Fortuna DüsseldorfFC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga3-0
2021-09-25FC Ingolstadt 04Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga1-2
2020-09-12FC Ingolstadt 04Fortuna DüsseldorfDFB Pokal0-1
2018-04-22Fortuna DüsseldorfFC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga3-0
2017-11-19FC Ingolstadt 04Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga1-0
2015-04-17FC Ingolstadt 04Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga3-2
2014-10-31Fortuna DüsseldorfFC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga0-0
2014-03-28Fortuna DüsseldorfFC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga0-0
2013-10-20FC Ingolstadt 04Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga1-2
2012-02-04FC Ingolstadt 04Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.4%, draw 26.9%, away 37.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.55 3.32 2.35
Bet365 2.50 3.40 2.40
BetVictor 2.38 3.10 2.20
Betano 2.70 3.50 2.42
Betfair 2.55 3.40 2.38
Dafabet 2.65 3.50 2.45
Marathonbet 2.55 3.32 2.35
Pinnacle 2.65 3.59 2.54
SBO 2.50 3.10 2.23
William Hill 2.50 3.25 2.45
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.55 ▼ -0.08
X 3.36 ▼ -0.06
2 2.39 ▲ +0.09

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 FC Ingolstadt 04 Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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