Preußen Münster
vs
MSV Duisburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: MSV Duisburg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.64.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — MSV Duisburg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg
| Probability | Preußen Münster | Draw | MSV Duisburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.6% | 21.7% | 50.6% |
| Market | 27.5% | 25.0% | 47.5% |
| Final | 27.5% | 24.2% | 48.3% |
| Edge | +0.0% | -0.8% | +0.8% |
Why MSV Duisburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (our 48.3% × 2.00 − 1).
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg match preview
Preußen Münster faces MSV Duisburg in a 3. Liga clash with kickoff set for November 7, 2026. According to our model, Preußen Münster has a 29% chance of winning, while MSV Duisburg is favored at 49%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Expected goals for Preußen Münster stand at 1.73, whereas MSV Duisburg is projected at 2.25.
In terms of recent form, Preußen Münster has recorded a mixed set of results with a W-L-L-D-L-D streak, while MSV Duisburg comes in on a stronger note with D-L-D-W-W-W. The model indicates a high likelihood of goals, with a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.88
Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg attack and defence ratings
Preußen Münster
MSV Duisburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
- SV Wehen v Havelse — match page
- Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — team news & stats
- Rot-Weiß Essen v Alemannia Aachen — match page
- Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln — team news & stats
- SV Meppen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
- Stuttgart II vs Verl
Before and after this match
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 48.3% | 2.07 | +0.8% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Preußen Münster | 27.5% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| MSV Duisburg | 48.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% |
| No | 27.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win | 31.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg stats
Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg recent form
| Preußen Münster |
LWLLDL |
| MSV Duisburg |
DLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg season so far
Preußen Münster record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
MSV Duisburg record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-23 | Preußen Münster | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga | 3-1 |
| 2023-09-30 | MSV Duisburg | Preußen Münster | 3. Liga | 0-0 |
| 2021-07-13 | MSV Duisburg | Preußen Münster | Friendlies Clubs | 2-3 |
| 2020-08-08 | MSV Duisburg | Preußen Münster | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2020-02-01 | Preußen Münster | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga | 1-4 |
| 2019-07-31 | MSV Duisburg | Preußen Münster | 3. Liga | 2-0 |
| 2017-02-12 | MSV Duisburg | Preußen Münster | 3. Liga | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.5%, draw 25.0%, away 47.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.62 | 1.89 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.65 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.25 | 3.62 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 3.46 | 3.78 | 1.96 |
| SBO | 2.95 | 3.18 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .