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3. Liga · ·Matchday 13

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln

Garuda Lions Prediction: Waldhof Mannheim

1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.87.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Waldhof Mannheim is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Waldhof Mannheim

Carl-Benz-Stadion, MannheimReferee: Davina Lutz

Waldhof Mannheim 50%
Draw 26%
Fortuna Köln 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Waldhof Mannheim wins
50%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
89%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
46%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
13% of simulated outcomes

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWaldhof MannheimDrawFortuna Köln
Model49.6%29.1%21.3%
Market50.1%24.9%25.0%
Final50.0%25.9%24.1%
Edge-0.1%+1.1%-0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Waldhof Mannheim

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.87.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 50.0% × 1.90 − 1).

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln match preview

Waldhof Mannheim enters the match against Fortuna Köln with a probability of 49% to win, while Fortuna Köln has a 21% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Waldhof Mannheim, with a 14% likelihood. The expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim stand at 1.40, compared to Fortuna Köln's 0.84, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home side.

Recent form shows Waldhof Mannheim with a mixed record of W-L-L-W-W-L, while Fortuna Köln has struggled, recording L-L-L-D-W-L in their last matches. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals are at 39%, and both teams to score is forecasted at 44%, suggesting a potentially low-scoring encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Waldhof Mannhe ↓ / Fortuna Köln → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 7% 1 13% 14% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Waldhof Mannheim and Fortuna Köln expected goals

Waldhof Mannheim 1.46
Fortuna Köln 0.87

Total expected goals: 2.33

Waldhof Mannheim and Fortuna Köln attack and defence ratings

Waldhof Mannheim

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Fortuna Köln

Attack 0.59 -41%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Waldhof Mannheim 50.0% 2.00 -0.1% 1.90
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.7% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score No 54.0% 1.85 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.9% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.4% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Waldhof Mannheim50.0%
Draw25.9%
Fortuna Köln24.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%
Both teams to scoreYes46.0%
No54.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.9%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)50.0%
Handicap -1Waldhof Mannheim win25.5%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss50.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
1-012.9%
0-010.9%
Compare prices for this pick

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln stats

Waldhof Mannheim and Fortuna Köln recent form

newest first
Waldhof Mannheim LWLLWW
Fortuna Köln LLLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Waldhof Mannheim and Fortuna Köln season so far

league record

Waldhof Mannheim record

  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fortuna Köln record

  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.1%, draw 24.9%, away 25.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.77 3.68 3.72
Bet365 1.80 3.60 3.50
BetVictor 1.70 3.25 3.30
Betano 1.85 3.80 3.80
Betfair 1.80 3.60 3.60
Dafabet 1.90 3.70 3.65
Marathonbet 1.75 3.68 3.64
Pinnacle 1.81 3.92 4.06
SBO 1.86 3.18 3.15
William Hill 1.85 3.50 3.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▼ -0.04
X 3.64 ▲ +0.04
2 3.62 ▲ +0.17

8 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Waldhof Mannheim Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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