Fortuna Köln
vs
Würzburger Kickers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortuna Köln
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.96.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
| Probability | Fortuna Köln | Draw | Würzburger Kickers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 30.1% | 25.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.6% | 30.1% | 25.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Fortuna Köln
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.96.
Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers match preview
Fortuna Köln faces Würzburger Kickers in a 3. Liga clash with Fortuna Köln having a 45% probability of winning, while the draw stands at 30% and Würzburger Kickers at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Fortuna Köln's expected goals are 1.36 compared to Würzburger Kickers' 0.96, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Fortuna Köln has recorded two losses, a draw, a win, and another loss in their last five matches, while Würzburger Kickers has a mixed record of two wins, two losses, and a draw. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals are at 41%, and both teams to score stands at 47%, suggesting a cautious approach to goal expectations in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortuna Köln and Würzburger Kickers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Fortuna Köln and Würzburger Kickers attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Köln
Würzburger Kickers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Köln | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Köln | 44.6% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Würzburger Kickers | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.3% |
| No | 52.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Köln win | 21.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers stats
Fortuna Köln and Würzburger Kickers recent form
| Fortuna Köln |
LLDWLD |
| Würzburger Kickers |
LWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Köln and Würzburger Kickers season so far
Fortuna Köln record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Würzburger Kickers record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.