SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
vs
Rot-Weiß Essen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rot-Weiß Essen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.10.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen
| Probability | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | Draw | Rot-Weiß Essen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.6% | 21.1% | 62.3% |
| Market | 29.4% | 24.2% | 46.4% |
| Final | 26.2% | 23.4% | 50.4% |
| Edge | -3.2% | -0.8% | +4.0% |
Why Rot-Weiß Essen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rot-Weiß Essen below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (our 50.4% × 2.02 − 1).
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen match preview
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach faces Rot-Weiß Essen in a 3. Liga matchup on November 1, 2026. According to our model, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach has a 17% chance of winning, while Rot-Weiß Essen is favored with a 62% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% likelihood. Expected goals suggest SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will score 1.10, whereas Rot-Weiß Essen is projected to net 2.25.
In terms of recent form, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach has recorded results of L-W-D-L-L-D, while Rot-Weiß Essen shows a stronger performance with W-L-W-D-D-W. Our model indicates a 65% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score, reflecting an expectation for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Rot-Weiß Essen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Rot-Weiß Essen attack and defence ratings
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Rot-Weiß Essen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock
- MSV Duisburg v Stuttgart II — match page
- Verl vs SV Wehen
- Havelse v FC Ingolstadt 04 — match page
- Hoffenheim II vs FC Viktoria Köln — team news & stats
- Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
- FC Saarbrücken v Waldhof Mannheim — match page
- Alemannia Aachen vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats
Before and after this match
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 50.4% | 1.98 | +4.0% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Rot-Weiß Essen win | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 26.2% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 50.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% |
| No | 39.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rot-Weiß Essen win | 40.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 37.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 8.9% |
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen stats
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Rot-Weiß Essen recent form
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach |
LWDLLD |
| Rot-Weiß Essen |
WLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Rot-Weiß Essen season so far
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rot-Weiß Essen record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.4%, draw 24.2%, away 46.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.08 | 3.72 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.85 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.85 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.02 | 3.72 | 1.93 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.92 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.60 | 1.95 |