Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
Alemannia Aachen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rot-Weiß Essen
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.12.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rot-Weiß Essen is the favourite, not a value bet.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen
| Probability | Rot-Weiß Essen | Draw | Alemannia Aachen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.2% | 28.4% | 27.4% |
| Market | 49.9% | 24.4% | 25.7% |
| Final | 48.5% | 25.4% | 26.1% |
| Edge | -1.4% | +1.0% | +0.4% |
Why Rot-Weiß Essen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.12.
Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (our 48.5% × 1.93 − 1).
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen match preview
Rot-Weiß Essen faces Alemannia Aachen in a 3. Liga clash with Rot-Weiß Essen holding a 44% probability of winning, while Alemannia Aachen stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Rot-Weiß Essen, with an expected goals tally of 1.48 for them compared to 1.12 for Aachen.
Recent form shows Rot-Weiß Essen with a mixed record of W-L-W-L-W-D, while Alemannia Aachen has been more consistent with three wins in their last six matches, despite two recent losses. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Rot-Weiß Essen has not secured a win, recording one draw and one loss against Alemannia Aachen. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rot-Weiß Essen and Alemannia Aachen expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Rot-Weiß Essen and Alemannia Aachen attack and defence ratings
Rot-Weiß Essen
Alemannia Aachen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
- SV Wehen v Havelse — match page
- Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — team news & stats
- Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln — team news & stats
- Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg — team news & stats
- SV Meppen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
- Stuttgart II vs Verl
Before and after this match
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 48.5% | 2.06 | -1.4% | 1.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 48.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Alemannia Aachen | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% |
| No | 46.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rot-Weiß Essen win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen stats
Rot-Weiß Essen and Alemannia Aachen recent form
| Rot-Weiß Essen |
WLWLWD |
| Alemannia Aachen |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rot-Weiß Essen and Alemannia Aachen season so far
Rot-Weiß Essen record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alemannia Aachen record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Alemannia Aachen | Rot-Weiß Essen | 3. Liga | 3-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Rot-Weiß Essen | Alemannia Aachen | 3. Liga | 2-3 |
| 2025-01-19 | Alemannia Aachen | Rot-Weiß Essen | 3. Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-03 | Rot-Weiß Essen | Alemannia Aachen | 3. Liga | 1-2 |
| 2022-07-16 | Alemannia Aachen | Rot-Weiß Essen | Friendlies Clubs | 1-3 |
| 2022-04-10 | Alemannia Aachen | Rot-Weiß Essen | Regionalliga - West | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-30 | Rot-Weiß Essen | Alemannia Aachen | Regionalliga - West | 2-1 |
| 2021-05-15 | Rot-Weiß Essen | Alemannia Aachen | Regionalliga - West | 2-1 |
| 2020-11-29 | Alemannia Aachen | Rot-Weiß Essen | Regionalliga - West | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.9%, draw 24.4%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.74 | 3.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.30 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.74 | 3.54 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 4.07 | 3.76 |
| SBO | 1.87 | 3.26 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .