Stuttgart II
vs
Verl
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stuttgart II
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.56.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Stuttgart II vs Verl overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stuttgart II vs Verl
| Probability | Stuttgart II | Draw | Verl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.4% | 19.3% | 21.2% |
| Market | 38.0% | 23.7% | 38.3% |
| Final | 43.4% | 22.6% | 34.0% |
| Edge | +5.4% | -1.1% | -4.3% |
Why Stuttgart II
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stuttgart II below our published probability: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.3% per unit staked (our 43.4% × 2.45 − 1).
Stuttgart II vs Verl match preview
Stuttgart II enters this match with a 59% probability of winning, while Verl has a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Stuttgart II, with an 8% likelihood. The model indicates a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 78%, and both teams scoring is projected at 74%. Expected goals for Stuttgart II stand at 2.60, compared to 1.56 for Verl.
Recent form shows Stuttgart II with two draws, one win, and a loss in their last five matches, while Verl has struggled with three losses, one draw, and one win. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Stuttgart II has not secured a win, with one draw and one victory for Verl. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stuttgart II and Verl expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.16
Stuttgart II and Verl attack and defence ratings
Stuttgart II
Verl
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
- SV Wehen v Havelse — match page
- Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — team news & stats
- Rot-Weiß Essen v Alemannia Aachen — match page
- Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln — team news & stats
- Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg — team news & stats
- SV Meppen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
- Würzburger Kickers v Hoffenheim II — match page
Before and after this match
Stuttgart II vs Verl markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stuttgart II | 43.4% | 2.30 | +5.4% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stuttgart II | 43.4% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Verl | 34.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.7% |
| No | 26.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stuttgart II win | 39.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-1 | 7.1% | |
| 1-1 | 7.0% |
Stuttgart II vs Verl stats
Stuttgart II and Verl recent form
| Stuttgart II |
DLWWDD |
| Verl |
LLLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stuttgart II and Verl season so far
Stuttgart II record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Verl record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Stuttgart II vs Verl head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Verl | Stuttgart II | 3. Liga | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Stuttgart II | Verl | 3. Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stuttgart II vs Verl odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.0%, draw 23.7%, away 38.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.84 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.90 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.85 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.84 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 4.13 | 2.48 |
| SBO | 2.19 | 3.48 | 2.34 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .