MSV Duisburg
vs
Stuttgart II
Garuda Lions Prediction: MSV Duisburg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.49.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II
| Probability | MSV Duisburg | Draw | Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.1% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.1% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why MSV Duisburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II match preview
MSV Duisburg enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 59%, while Stuttgart II has a 22% chance. The expected goals for Duisburg are 2.57, compared to 1.57 for Stuttgart II, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game. Our model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-1, with an 8% probability, and a significant 78% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored.
In terms of recent form, Duisburg has recorded four wins and one draw in their last six matches, while Stuttgart II has two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same period. Historically, Duisburg has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two meetings without conceding. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.06
MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II attack and defence ratings
MSV Duisburg
Stuttgart II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win | 40.4% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 60.1% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Stuttgart II | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% |
| No | 27.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win | 40.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-1 | 7.3% | |
| 3-1 | 7.3% |
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II stats
MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II recent form
| MSV Duisburg |
LDWWWW |
| Stuttgart II |
LWWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II season so far
MSV Duisburg record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.4 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Stuttgart II record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Stuttgart II | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga | 0-4 |
| 2025-08-02 | MSV Duisburg | Stuttgart II | 3. Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.