FC Ingolstadt 04
vs
MSV Duisburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: MSV Duisburg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg
| Probability | FC Ingolstadt 04 | Draw | MSV Duisburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.4% | 23.4% | 47.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 29.4% | 23.4% | 47.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why MSV Duisburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg match preview
In the upcoming match between FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with MSV Duisburg favored at 47%, while FC Ingolstadt 04 has a 29% chance of winning. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Duisburg, with both teams expected to contribute to the scoring, as evidenced by a 69% probability for both teams to score and for over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows FC Ingolstadt 04 with a mixed record of W-W-L-L-L-W, while MSV Duisburg has been more consistent, winning four of their last six matches. The expected goals suggest FC Ingolstadt 04 will score around 1.56, whereas MSV Duisburg is forecasted to net approximately 2.00 goals. The confidence grade for this match is rated C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.55
FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg attack and defence ratings
FC Ingolstadt 04
MSV Duisburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 29.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| MSV Duisburg | 47.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% |
| No | 30.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win | 27.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 52.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg stats
FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg recent form
| FC Ingolstadt 04 |
WWLLLW |
| MSV Duisburg |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg season so far
FC Ingolstadt 04 record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
MSV Duisburg record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | MSV Duisburg | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.