Garuda Lions
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3. Liga · ·Matchday 10

MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln

Garuda Lions Prediction: MSV Duisburg

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

Bet on MSV Duisburg

MSV-Arena, DuisburgReferee: Cristian Ballweg

MSV Duisburg 44%
Draw 24%
FC Viktoria Köln 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance MSV Duisburg wins
44%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
75%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln overview

Garuda Lions analysis: MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMSV DuisburgDrawFC Viktoria Köln
Model45.1%21.8%33.0%
Market44.1%24.9%31.0%
Final44.3%24.1%31.5%
Edge+1.0%-3.1%+2.0%

Confidence: Low

Why MSV Duisburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.86.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln match preview

MSV Duisburg faces FC Viktoria Köln in an upcoming 3. Liga match. According to our model, MSV Duisburg has a 42% chance of winning, while FC Viktoria Köln stands at 35%, with a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Duisburg, with expected goals of 1.95 for Duisburg and 1.79 for Köln. Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Duisburg recording three wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Köln has four wins and one loss in the same timeframe.

The analysis indicates a high probability of goals, with over 2.5 goals expected at 72% and both teams to score also at 72%. In their last two encounters, Duisburg and Köln have not secured a win against each other, resulting in two draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

MSV Duisburg ↓ / FC Viktoria Kö → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 7% 4% 2 4% 8% 7% 4% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 77%
No goals 3%

MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln expected goals

MSV Duisburg 2.17
FC Viktoria Köln 1.86

Total expected goals: 4.03

MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln attack and defence ratings

MSV Duisburg

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.90 -10%

FC Viktoria Köln

Attack 1.38 +38%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 MSV Duisburg 44.3% 2.26 +1.0% 2.15
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.6% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 75.5% 1.33 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.9% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.9% 1.82 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2MSV Duisburg44.3%
Draw24.1%
FC Viktoria Köln31.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.6%
Under 2.523.4%
Both teams to scoreYes75.5%
No24.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.5%
12 (either side)75.9%
X2 (draw or away)55.7%
Handicap -1MSV Duisburg win26.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.4%
Loss54.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.9%
2-17.8%
2-27.2%
Compare prices for this pick

MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln stats

MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln recent form

newest first
MSV Duisburg WWWWLW
FC Viktoria Köln DWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln season so far

league record

MSV Duisburg record

  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

FC Viktoria Köln record

  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2MSV Duisburg wins 4Draws 4FC Viktoria Köln wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-16MSV DuisburgFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga1-1
2025-12-21FC Viktoria KölnMSV Duisburg3. Liga0-0
2024-02-17MSV DuisburgFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga1-0
2023-09-23FC Viktoria KölnMSV Duisburg3. Liga2-0
2023-04-17FC Viktoria KölnMSV Duisburg3. Liga2-2
2022-10-22MSV DuisburgFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga1-1
2022-03-05MSV DuisburgFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga2-0
2021-09-25FC Viktoria KölnMSV Duisburg3. Liga4-2
2021-03-13FC Viktoria KölnMSV Duisburg3. Liga3-1
2020-11-09MSV DuisburgFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 25.0%, away 31.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.03 3.62 2.97
Bet365 2.05 3.60 2.90
BetVictor 1.95 3.30 2.63
Betano 2.15 3.60 3.05
Betfair 2.00 3.80 2.88
Dafabet 2.14 3.60 2.95
Marathonbet 2.01 3.62 2.90
Pinnacle 2.11 3.82 3.13
SBO 2.05 3.42 2.72
William Hill 2.10 3.40 2.90
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.04 ▼ -0.06
X 3.61 ▲ +0.06
2 2.90 —

9 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 MSV Duisburg Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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