3. Liga
·
·Matchday 10
Fortuna Köln
vs
Stuttgart II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortuna Köln
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Fortuna Köln
49%
Draw
23%
Stuttgart II
28%
Chance Fortuna Köln wins
49%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
70%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes
Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II
| Probability | Fortuna Köln | Draw | Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 22.9% | 28.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.2% | 22.9% | 28.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Fortuna Köln
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
70%
No goals
4%
Fortuna Köln and Stuttgart II expected goals
Fortuna Köln
2.07
Stuttgart II
1.54
Total expected goals: 3.62
Fortuna Köln and Stuttgart II attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Köln
Attack
0.87 -13%
Defence
0.85 -15%
Stuttgart II
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
1.36 +36%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Köln | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Köln | 49.2% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Stuttgart II | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.6% |
| No | 30.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Köln win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 50.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II stats
Fortuna Köln and Stuttgart II recent form
| Fortuna Köln |
WLDDWD |
| Stuttgart II |
DLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Köln and Stuttgart II season so far
Fortuna Köln record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Stuttgart II record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.