Preußen Münster
vs
Fortuna Köln
Garuda Lions Prediction: Preußen Münster
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Preußen Münster is the favourite, not a value bet.
Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln
| Probability | Preußen Münster | Draw | Fortuna Köln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 28.3% | 30.7% |
| Market | 43.5% | 27.2% | 29.3% |
| Final | 42.9% | 27.5% | 29.6% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.3% | +0.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 42.9% × 2.18 − 1).
Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln match preview
Preußen Münster faces Fortuna Köln in a 3. Liga matchup, with probabilities indicating a 43% chance of a home win for Münster, while Köln has a 30% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Münster, with a 50% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 55% chance that both teams will find the net. Expected goals are calculated at 1.44 for Münster and 1.22 for Köln.
Recent form shows Preußen Münster with two losses, followed by a draw and a win, while Fortuna Köln has also struggled, recording two losses, a draw, a win, and another loss. In their last ten encounters, Münster has secured five wins compared to Köln's four, with one match ending in a draw, suggesting a competitive history between the two sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Preußen Münster and Fortuna Köln expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Preußen Münster and Fortuna Köln attack and defence ratings
Preußen Münster
Fortuna Köln
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg — match page
- SV Meppen vs Würzburger Kickers
- SV Wehen v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — match page
- Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — team news & stats
- FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl
- Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen — match page
- Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken
- Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Preußen Münster | 42.9% | 2.33 | -0.6% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Preußen Münster | 42.9% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Fortuna Köln | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Preußen Münster win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln stats
Preußen Münster and Fortuna Köln recent form
| Preußen Münster |
LLDLDW |
| Fortuna Köln |
LLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Preußen Münster and Fortuna Köln season so far
Preußen Münster record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Fortuna Köln record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-28 | Preußen Münster | Fortuna Köln | Regionalliga - West | 1-3 |
| 2022-11-06 | Fortuna Köln | Preußen Münster | Regionalliga - West | 1-3 |
| 2022-04-19 | Preußen Münster | Fortuna Köln | Regionalliga - West | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-01 | Fortuna Köln | Preußen Münster | Regionalliga - West | 3-2 |
| 2021-05-08 | Preußen Münster | Fortuna Köln | Regionalliga - West | 3-1 |
| 2020-11-25 | Fortuna Köln | Preußen Münster | Regionalliga - West | 2-0 |
| 2018-12-22 | Preußen Münster | Fortuna Köln | 3. Liga | 0-2 |
| 2018-07-28 | Fortuna Köln | Preußen Münster | 3. Liga | 1-4 |
| 2018-04-14 | Fortuna Köln | Preußen Münster | 3. Liga | 2-4 |
| 2017-11-03 | Preußen Münster | Fortuna Köln | 3. Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.3%, draw 27.2%, away 29.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.32 | 3.09 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.06 | 3.32 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.60 | 3.29 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.13 | 2.83 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .