Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rot-Weiß Essen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
| Probability | Rot-Weiß Essen | Draw | SSV Jahn Regensburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.9% | 24.7% | 25.4% |
| Market | 55.7% | 22.3% | 22.1% |
| Final | 54.2% | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| Edge | -5.8% | +2.4% | +3.3% |
Why Rot-Weiß Essen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg match preview
Rot-Weiß Essen faces SSV Jahn Regensburg in a 3. Liga clash, with the model favoring Essen at 53% to win, while Regensburg holds a 26% chance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Essen, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 2.26 for Essen and 1.56 for Regensburg. Both teams are anticipated to score, with a probability of 72%, and there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 73%.
In terms of recent form, Rot-Weiß Essen has shown strong performance with three consecutive wins, while SSV Jahn Regensburg has struggled, managing only one win in their last six matches. Historically, Rot-Weiß Essen has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two meetings without conceding. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the forecasted outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rot-Weiß Essen and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Rot-Weiß Essen and SSV Jahn Regensburg attack and defence ratings
Rot-Weiß Essen
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 54.2% | 1.84 | -5.8% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 54.2% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rot-Weiß Essen win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg stats
Rot-Weiß Essen and SSV Jahn Regensburg recent form
| Rot-Weiß Essen |
LWDDWW |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg |
DDWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rot-Weiß Essen and SSV Jahn Regensburg season so far
Rot-Weiß Essen record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SSV Jahn Regensburg record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Rot-Weiß Essen | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 3. Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-09-12 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | Rot-Weiß Essen | 3. Liga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.7%, draw 22.3%, away 22.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.13 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.05 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 4.36 | 4.32 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.00 |