Havelse
vs
FC Saarbrücken
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Saarbrücken
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.59.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Saarbrücken is the favourite, not a value bet.
Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken
| Probability | Havelse | Draw | FC Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.2% | 19.0% | 59.8% |
| Market | 21.6% | 21.6% | 56.8% |
| Final | 21.5% | 21.0% | 57.5% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.6% | +0.8% |
Why FC Saarbrücken
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.59.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (our 57.5% × 1.67 − 1).
Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken match preview
Havelse faces FC Saarbrücken in a 3. Liga clash on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Havelse has a 22% chance of winning, while FC Saarbrücken is favored at 58%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Expected goals are 1.59 for Havelse and 2.65 for FC Saarbrücken, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
Recent form shows Havelse struggling with two draws and three losses in their last five matches, while FC Saarbrücken has had a mixed performance with two wins, two draws, and a loss. The model predicts an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% likelihood that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Havelse and FC Saarbrücken expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.24
Havelse and FC Saarbrücken attack and defence ratings
Havelse
FC Saarbrücken
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg — match page
- SV Meppen vs Würzburger Kickers
- SV Wehen v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — match page
- Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — team news & stats
- FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl
- Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen — match page
- Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln — team news & stats
- Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Saarbrücken | 57.5% | 1.74 | +0.8% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Saarbrücken win | 40.4% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Havelse | 21.5% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| FC Saarbrücken | 57.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% |
| No | 25.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Saarbrücken win | 40.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 40.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-3 | 7.1% | |
| 1-1 | 6.7% |
Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken stats
Havelse and FC Saarbrücken recent form
| Havelse |
DDLLLD |
| FC Saarbrücken |
WLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Havelse and FC Saarbrücken season so far
Havelse record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Saarbrücken record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Havelse | FC Saarbrücken | 3. Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-08 | FC Saarbrücken | Havelse | 3. Liga | 1-1 |
| 2021-12-18 | FC Saarbrücken | Havelse | 3. Liga | 2-2 |
| 2021-07-24 | Havelse | FC Saarbrücken | 3. Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.5%, draw 21.5%, away 56.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.28 | 4.20 | 1.58 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.40 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.56 |
| Pinnacle | 4.54 | 4.49 | 1.63 |
| SBO | 3.88 | 3.87 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .