FC Saarbrücken
vs
Waldhof Mannheim
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Saarbrücken
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Saarbrücken is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim
| Probability | FC Saarbrücken | Draw | Waldhof Mannheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 22.1% | 30.0% |
| Market | 44.4% | 25.1% | 30.4% |
| Final | 45.3% | 24.4% | 30.3% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.8% | -0.1% |
Why FC Saarbrücken
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.71.
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 45.3% × 2.12 − 1).
FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim match preview
FC Saarbrücken faces Waldhof Mannheim in a 3. Liga matchup, with a probability of 55% for a home win, 22% for a draw, and 24% for an away victory, according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.26 for FC Saarbrücken and 1.46 for Waldhof Mannheim. Recent form shows FC Saarbrücken with a mixed record of L-W-L-D-W-D, while Waldhof Mannheim has recorded L-L-W-W-L-W.
Both teams appear likely to contribute to a high-scoring affair, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% probability that both teams will score. In their last two encounters, each team has secured one win, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Saarbrücken and Waldhof Mannheim expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.88
FC Saarbrücken and Waldhof Mannheim attack and defence ratings
FC Saarbrücken
Waldhof Mannheim
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock
- MSV Duisburg v Stuttgart II — match page
- Verl vs SV Wehen
- Havelse v FC Ingolstadt 04 — match page
- Hoffenheim II vs FC Viktoria Köln — team news & stats
- Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen — team news & stats
- Alemannia Aachen vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Saarbrücken | 45.3% | 2.21 | +0.9% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Saarbrücken | 45.3% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Waldhof Mannheim | 30.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% |
| No | 26.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Saarbrücken win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim stats
FC Saarbrücken and Waldhof Mannheim recent form
| FC Saarbrücken |
LWLDWD |
| Waldhof Mannheim |
WLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Saarbrücken and Waldhof Mannheim season so far
FC Saarbrücken record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waldhof Mannheim record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | FC Saarbrücken | Waldhof Mannheim | 3. Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Waldhof Mannheim | FC Saarbrücken | 3. Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 25.1%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.58 | 2.96 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.70 | 3.05 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.70 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.58 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.72 | 3.08 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.40 | 2.90 |