Garuda Lions
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3. Liga · ·Matchday 13

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Viktoria Köln

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.42.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on FC Viktoria Köln

Sportpark Höhenberg, CologneReferee: Ben Henry Uhrig

FC Viktoria Köln 52%
Draw 23%
FC Saarbrücken 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Viktoria Köln wins
52%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
71%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC Viktoria KölnDrawFC Saarbrücken
Model61.3%19.4%19.3%
Market49.2%23.9%26.9%
Final52.2%22.8%25.0%
Edge+3.0%-1.1%-1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Viktoria Köln

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.42.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Viktoria Köln below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.2% per unit staked (our 52.2% × 1.91 − 1).

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken match preview

FC Viktoria Köln faces FC Saarbrücken in a 3. Liga matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 6, 2026. According to our model, FC Viktoria Köln has a 54% probability of winning, while a draw is at 23% and FC Saarbrücken at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of FC Viktoria Köln, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln stand at 2.55, compared to 1.42 for FC Saarbrücken.

In terms of recent form, FC Viktoria Köln has recorded three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while FC Saarbrücken has alternated between wins and losses, with two wins and three draws in their last five. Our model indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 71%. Historically, in their last ten encounters, FC Saarbrücken has the upper hand with six wins compared to FC Viktoria Köln's three.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Viktoria Kö ↓ / FC Saarbrücken → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 5% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken expected goals

FC Viktoria Köln 2.55
FC Saarbrücken 1.42

Total expected goals: 3.97

FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken attack and defence ratings

FC Viktoria Köln

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.77 -23%

FC Saarbrücken

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Viktoria Köln 52.2% 1.91 +3.0% 1.91
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.8% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.6% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.2% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 FC Viktoria Köln win 41.3% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Viktoria Köln52.2%
Draw22.8%
FC Saarbrücken25.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.8%
Under 2.524.2%
Both teams to scoreYes70.6%
No29.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.0%
12 (either side)77.2%
X2 (draw or away)47.8%
Handicap -1FC Viktoria Köln win41.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss38.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.7%
1-17.5%
3-17.4%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken stats

FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken recent form

newest first
FC Viktoria Köln WWDDWW
FC Saarbrücken WLWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken season so far

league record

FC Viktoria Köln record

  • They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Saarbrücken record

  • They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3FC Viktoria Köln wins 1Draws 6FC Saarbrücken wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-23FC Viktoria KölnFC Saarbrücken3. Liga2-0
2025-08-09FC SaarbrückenFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga2-1
2025-02-28FC Viktoria KölnFC Saarbrücken3. Liga1-2
2024-09-25FC SaarbrückenFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga1-0
2024-02-21FC Viktoria KölnFC Saarbrücken3. Liga2-5
2023-08-19FC SaarbrückenFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga1-2
2023-05-27FC SaarbrückenFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga2-1
2023-01-20FC Viktoria KölnFC Saarbrücken3. Liga0-2
2022-02-19FC SaarbrückenFC Viktoria Köln3. Liga0-1
2021-09-11FC Viktoria KölnFC Saarbrücken3. Liga0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 23.9%, away 26.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.82 3.80 3.41
Bet365 1.83 3.70 3.30
BetVictor 1.73 3.40 3.10
Betano 1.91 3.90 3.45
Betfair 1.85 3.80 3.40
Dafabet 1.90 3.90 3.50
Marathonbet 1.80 3.80 3.34
Pinnacle 1.90 4.15 3.57
SBO 1.84 3.52 3.14
William Hill 1.85 3.70 3.30
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.85 ▲ +0.12
X 3.80 ▼ -0.15
2 3.37 ▼ -0.37

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 FC Viktoria Köln Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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