Hansa Rostock
vs
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hansa Rostock
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
| Probability | Hansa Rostock | Draw | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 25.5% | 32.7% |
| Market | 44.5% | 25.9% | 29.6% |
| Final | 43.8% | 25.8% | 30.4% |
| Edge | -2.7% | -0.4% | +3.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf match preview
Hansa Rostock faces Fortuna Düsseldorf in a 3. Liga matchup with Hansa Rostock holding a 44% probability of winning compared to Fortuna Düsseldorf's 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Hansa Rostock's expected goals stand at 1.69, while Fortuna Düsseldorf's is slightly lower at 1.48.
In terms of recent form, Hansa Rostock has recorded two losses, a win, a draw, and another loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Fortuna Düsseldorf has shown a more favorable trend with two wins, a draw, and a loss in their latest outings. The model suggests a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf attack and defence ratings
Hansa Rostock
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hansa Rostock | 43.8% | 2.28 | -2.7% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hansa Rostock | 43.8% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 30.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% |
| No | 36.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hansa Rostock win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf stats
Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf recent form
| Hansa Rostock |
LLWDWL |
| Fortuna Düsseldorf |
LWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf season so far
Hansa Rostock record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortuna Düsseldorf record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.5%, draw 25.9%, away 29.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.48 | 3.09 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.48 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.73 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.50 | 2.90 |