Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
Fortuna Köln
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rot-Weiß Essen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
| Probability | Rot-Weiß Essen | Draw | Fortuna Köln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.7% | 27.3% | 26.0% |
| Market | 62.4% | 20.9% | 16.7% |
| Final | 58.5% | 22.5% | 19.1% |
| Edge | -15.6% | +6.4% | +9.2% |
Why Rot-Weiß Essen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln match preview
Rot-Weiß Essen faces Fortuna Köln in a 3. Liga matchup on October 13, 2026. The model indicates a 47% probability of a win for Rot-Weiß Essen, while Fortuna Köln has a 26% chance of securing victory, and a draw stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Rot-Weiß Essen, with a 9% probability.
Both teams show an inclination for goals, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score. In terms of expected goals, Rot-Weiß Essen is projected at 1.59, while Fortuna Köln is at 1.13. Recent form shows Rot-Weiß Essen with a record of D-W-W-W-D-W, and Fortuna Köln with W-L-D-D-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln attack and defence ratings
Rot-Weiß Essen
Fortuna Köln
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hansa Rostock v SV Meppen — match page
- FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg — match page
- Havelse v Würzburger Kickers — match page
- Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II — team news & stats
- Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — team news & stats
- SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen
- FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — team news & stats
- Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 58.5% | 1.71 | -15.6% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 58.5% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Fortuna Köln | 19.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% |
| No | 44.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rot-Weiß Essen win | 25.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln stats
Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln recent form
| Rot-Weiß Essen |
DDWWWD |
| Fortuna Köln |
WLDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln season so far
Rot-Weiß Essen record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortuna Köln record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.4%, draw 20.9%, away 16.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.33 | 5.35 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.25 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .